信心博弈

剑桥——

下个月,是曾经备受尊敬的美国投行——雷曼兄弟银行倒闭一周年纪念。雷曼的垮台标志着一场人类自1930年大萧条以来从未经受过的全球性衰退和金融危机的开始。一年过去了,在全球政界花费了数万亿美元的公款和进行了无数次的研究之后,我们是否吸取了正确的教训呢?我看未必。

来自政界一致的压倒性的舆论认为,当时只要政府能帮雷曼兄弟一把,那么事情的危害程度就能减小到金融界一个小小的饱嗝,而不是心脏病。无论是著名的投资人或是政治领袖,都宣称在当今世界这么一个超互联的经济环境中,不能够放任像雷曼兄弟这样的大型金融机构就这么破产。无论它自身的管理有多么差劲(实质上,雷曼已经把自己变成了一个完全依赖美国房产泡沫的一个房产持有公司),一个大型金融机构的债权人们都应该得到偿付。否则,现行金融系统的信心将被削弱,而混乱也将来临。

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