La edad de la automatización financiera se avecina

PRINCETON- El debate público, sobre todo durante las crisis económicas, gira en torno a las estadísticas del crecimiento, que se convierten en una especie de termómetro para la fiebre. Sin embargo, las lecturas no son confiables y cambian constantemente, lo que incita a los estadísticos a concebir diferentes formas de medir los muy distintos productos de la economía. En particular, hay datos recientemente revisados que han puesto en duda el alcance económico y el papel de los servicios financieros.

A finales de julio, la Oficina de Análisis Económico de los Estados Unidos (BEA por sus siglas en inglés) publicó revisiones del PIB estadounidense que se remonta a 1929. Lo más trascendente es que se mostró que el PIB es más volátil de lo que se había supuesto.

La economía creció más rápido durante las fases prósperas, y se deprimió de forma más abrupta en las de desaceleración. La tasa anual de crecimiento de 1997 a 2008 fue del 2.8% en lugar del 2.7%. En 2008, la cifra cayó al 0.4% en lugar de 1.1% como se supuso anteriormente. El desplome del PIB en el primer trimestre de 2009 también fue más considerable de lo previsto.

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