Paul Lachine

中国魔镜

发自东京——20世纪的最后十年为所有渴望窥知亚太地区未来的人提供了一个水晶球。曾经占据区域老大地位的日本自资产泡沫爆破之后就走向了“迷失”,而走出了1989年天安门事件后期经济停滞的中国则迈向了如今的强劲增长之路。10年前流行的那场针对中国快速增长的辩论——所谓这种增长究竟是威胁还是机会——如今已尘埃落定,大多数人都同意缺少了中国就不可能有更大范围的区域经济发展。

对亚太地区乃至整个世界来说,更深入的地缘政治影响将取决于发生在中国身上的三个关键变化。首先是中国经济的增长模式,目前主要还是由快速增长的生产要素投入——劳动力,资本和能源——来实现,但最近有研究显示中国约有1/3的经济增长来自技术进步,或是源自总生产要素生产力的提升。换言之,中国的发展模式已经开始向发达经济体靠拢,意味着其增长将日趋平衡。

第二种转变则是人民币势必在未来几年内持续升值。尽管各国政府施加了强大压力要求人民币在该国庞大的贸易顺差下升值,但考虑到目前中国经济对出口的依赖程度,中国政府依然对其货币的大幅币值重估有所保留。但中国官员也意识到人民币升值同样符合本国的利益,因为这有助于缓和国内的通胀压力。因此中国政府似乎已经准备好让人民币升值,问题只不过是速度快慢而以。

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