El cambiante mapa del poder en Medio Oriente

BERLÍN – El estallido de las revueltas árabes entre finales de 2010 y principios de 2011 puso las  relaciones de poder entre los países de Medio Oriente en un cambio constante, y así han surgido ganadores y perdedores. Sin embargo, dado que las fortalezas y debilidades de gran parte de los actores son excesivamente contingentes, el equilibrio regional de poder sigue siendo muy variable.

De acuerdo al equilibrio actual, Egipto seguirá siendo uno de los actores más influyentes de la región y el éxito o fracaso de su transición política y económica afectará la forma cómo evolucionen otros países árabes. Pero Egipto tiene la carga de sus problemas internos, incluida una economía que se desploma y una situación de seguridad en la que los militares tienen que realizar funciones propias de la policía.

La expansión del poder suave de Egipto dependerá de la habilidad de su primer gobierno elegido democráticamente, encabezado por el presidente, Mohamed Morsi, para tomar decisiones difíciles y construir consenso interno. El éxito para establecer una gobernanza efectiva marcará la pauta para que muchos vecinos de Egipto traten de imitarlo, al menos, en parte.

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