中东实力地图的变迁

柏林—2010年末、2011年初爆发的阿拉伯革命让中东国家实力关系乱成了一锅粥,产生了赢家和输家。但是,由于大部分行动方的优势和劣势都是高度不确定的,地区实力平衡仍然极不稳定。

目前的实力平衡是,埃及仍然是地区最有影响力的行动方之一,其政治和经济转型的成与败影响着其他阿拉伯国家的发展。但埃及的影响因为国内问题二有所削弱,包括遭受重创的经济和用军队来处理政治任务的安全局势。

埃及软实力的扩张将取决于以总统穆尔西为首的、其第一届民主选出的政府的作出艰难决定和铸造国内一致的能力。成功地树立成功的治理将形成一个模式,埃及的诸多邻国都可以效仿(至少是部分效仿)。

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