Dean Rohrer

Канцлер, играющий с огнем

БЕРЛИН. Канцлер Германии Ангела Меркель в настоящее время должна быть счастлива: предварительный рейтинг ее партии не плох, а ее собственный ‑ очень хорош. У нее больше нет серьезных конкурентов в правоцентристском Христианско-демократическом союзе (ХДС), в то время как левая оппозиция раскололась на четыре партии. Ее ответ европейскому кризису подействовал, или, по крайней мере, складывается такое впечатление, что она выражает мнение большинства немцев. Так что все великолепно, не так ли?

Но не надо спешить с выводами. Две проблемы могут осложнить переизбрание Меркель осенью 2013 года. Внутри страны ее партнер по коалиции, Партия либеральных свободных демократов (СвДП), распадается. Даже если СвДП выживет на следующих выборах (что вовсе не обязательно), нынешняя коалиция вряд ли сохранит свое парламентское большинство, оставив Меркель все более зависящей от Партии социал-демократов (СДПГ). Хотя это не является слишком важным для нее до тех пор, пока она остается канцлером, в лидере СДПГ Зигмаре Габриэле она впервые встретила противника, которого опасно недооценивать.

Но реальная опасность для Меркель является внешней: кризис в Европе. Если ей не повезет, все вспомнят о кризисе в начале года выборов в Германии, и все предыдущие расчеты могут быть спорными, поскольку, несмотря на разочарование немцев в Европе, избиратели сурово накажут тех, кто позволил Европе потерпеть провал.

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