Le grand boom économique de l’Afrique

PARIS – L’Afrique vit actuellement une période de croissance économique sans précédent. D’après The Economist, six des dix pays ayant connu la plus forte croissance en 2011 se situent sur le continent africain. La moyenne de la dette extérieure de l’Afrique est passée de 63% du PIB en 2000 à 22,2% cette année, l’inflation moyenne s’élevant aujourd’hui à 8%, contre 15% en 2000. Cette tendance positive devrait se poursuivre, dans la mesure où elle repose sur des facteurs structurels, géographiques et démographiques, tels que l’augmentation des exportations, l’amélioration des conditions commerciales, ou encore une consommation intérieure en constante croissance.

Les gouvernements nationaux africains se heurtent néanmoins encore à des défis considérables, compte tenu de la grande variété des facteurs en jeu dans chaque État. Les caractéristiques économiques varient de manière significative d’un pays à l’autre, en fonction par exemple de l’existence de politiques en faveur d’un change fixe ou d’un change flottant, ou encore des ressources naturelles contrôlées par le pays.

En conséquence, les perspectives diffèrent également selon les pays. Bien qu’il soit prévu, pour l’ensemble du continent, que le taux annuel moyen de croissance du PIB environne les 6% en 2012, l’économie de l’Afrique du Sud devrait connaître une croissance de seulement 3,6%, contre des prévisions à 8,5% pour la Côte d’Ivoire. Afin de façonner la politique économique nationale de manière efficace, il appartient aux dirigeants d’identifier les moteurs – et les obstacles – de la croissance dans chaque pays.

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