Degelos Fatais

MOSCOVO – Durante a Guerra Fria, a União Soviética e, de modo mais brando, os Estados Unidos, impuseram limites externos às actividades dos estados e das sociedades, fazendo com que alguns conflitos prolongados entre países mais pequenos “congelassem”. A seguir ao colapso da União Soviética na década de 1990, esses conflitos começaram a “descongelar.”

Com tensões interétnicas em escalada, a Jugoslávia foi o primeiro país a dissolver-se num conflito. Pouco depois, a guerra rebentou entre a Arménia e o Azerbaijão, seguida por lutas na Transnístria e na Chechénia. Enquanto alguns conflitos foram enfrentados – o Ocidente acabou por intervir militarmente na ex-Jugoslávia; e a Rússia lutou na Chechénia durante quase uma década, impondo a paz na Transnístria – outros, como os conflitos entre a Arménia e o Azerbaijão, foram simplesmente congelados mais uma vez.

Felizmente, nem todos os conflitos potenciais deflagraram. A União Soviética não se dissolveu em violência, como a maioria dos outros impérios – um resultado que não parece explicar-se apenas pela intervenção divina ou pela mera sorte. Apesar dos crescentes sentimentos nacionalistas e das suspeitas mútuas, os países da Europa Central e de Leste também souberam evitar o conflito, graças à rápida aceitação na OTAN e na União Europeia.

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