Inarrestabile Carry Trade

LONDRA – Secondo un recente report della Bank for International Settlements il volume giornaliero di valute scambiate nei mercati globali di foreign exchange (FX) è pari a 4.000 miliardi di dollari (nel 2007 era di 3.300 miliardi). Se, però, da un lato la portata dell’attività di FX fa sempre notizia, dall’altro assume una certa rilevanza anche la modalità di negoziazione di queste valute – che negli anni ha subito una forte evoluzione.

Qualsiasi manuale di finanza vi dirà che gli investitori si preoccupano dei rendimenti complessivi del proprio portafoglio, non solo delle singole attività finanziarie. Gli investitori fanno leva sulle attività finanziarie che non sono abbastanza correlate, o ancora meglio, su quelle negativamente correlate ai rendimenti del mercato nel loro insieme. Detenere tali attività tende a stabilire i rendimenti globali.

In teoria funziona, ma da dove arrivano queste attività? Solitamente alcuni prezzi azionari non sono abbastanza correlati al mercato. I prezzi azionari tendono, però, a muoversi insieme nei momenti di dislocazione del mercato, pertanto la correlazione tende ad andare male nel peggiore momento possibile: quando un hedge (o copertura) potrebbe essere assolutamente vantaggioso, l’attività finanziaria su cui contavi diventa un rischio.

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