Der Carry Trade geht weiter

LONDON: Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich vermeldete kürzlich, dass täglich 4 Billionen Dollar auf den weltweiten Devisenmärkten umgeschlagen werden, gegenüber 3,3 Billionen im Jahre 2007. Doch während es immer die Größe des Devisengeschäfts ist, die Schlagzeilen macht, ist zugleich die Art und Weise von Belang, wie Devisen gehandelt werden – und die hat sich im Laufe der Jahre gewaltig geändert.

In jeder finanzwirtschaftlichen Einführung lässt sich nachlesen, dass für die Anleger die Rendite ihres Gesamtportfolios wichtig ist, nicht nur die ihrer einzelnen Anlagen. Anleger schätzen Anlagewerte, die relativ wenig – oder sogar noch besser – negativ mit dem Gesamtmarkt korreliert sind. Der Besitz solcher Anlagen führt in der Regel zur Stabilisierung der Gesamtrendite.

In der Theorie ist das schön und gut, aber wo findet man derartige Anlagen? Bestimmte Aktienkurse sind normalerweise mit dem Markt relativ wenig korreliert. Doch in Zeiten von Marktverwerfungen neigen die Aktienkurse dazu, sich einander sehr viel stärker anzunähern. Das heißt, diese Beziehung geht genau im falschen Moment in die Brüche: Gerade wenn ein Sicherungsgeschäft besonders nützlich wäre, verwandeln sich die Anlagen, auf die man sich verlässt, in ein Risiko.

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