Die einstürzenden Säulen des Welthandels

NEW YORK – Die als Doha-Runde bekannte letzte Phase der multilateralen Handelsgespräche scheiterte nach zehn Verhandlungsjahren im November 2011, trotz offizieller Bemühungen vieler Länder, einschließlich Großbritanniens und Deutschlands, und fast aller renommierten Handelswissenschaftler von heute. Während Vertreter der Vereinigten Staaten und der Europäischen Union die überzogenen Forderungen der G-22-Entwicklungsländer für das Scheitern der früheren Verhandlungen in  Cancún im Jahr 2003 verantwortlicht machten, ist man sich allgemein einig, dass es diesmal an den USA lag, deren ungerechtfertigte Forderungen (und unbeugsame Haltung) den Gesprächen den Garaus machten. Wie geht es jetzt weiter?  

Dass eine multilaterale Handelsliberalisierung durch den Abschluss der Doha-Runde nicht erreicht werden konnte, bedeutet, dass die Welt Handelsgewinne einbüßt, die ein erfolgreicher Vertrag mit sich gebracht hätte. Aber das ist noch nicht alles: durch das Scheitern der Doha-Runde wird die multilaterale Handelsliberalisierung in den kommenden Jahren praktisch zum Erliegen kommen.

Natürlich sind multilaterale Handelsgespräche nur eine von drei Säulen, auf denen die Welthandelsorganisation ruht. Aber der Einsturz dieser Säule wirkt sich nachteilig auf die Funktion der anderen beiden aus, nämlich auf die Regelsetzungskompetenz der WTO und ihren Streitschlichtungsmechanismus. Der Preis dafür könnte ebenfalls sehr hoch sein.

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