Chris Van Es

Аятолла и ведьмы

ВАШИНГТОН, округ Колумбия. Махмуд Ахмадинежад сейчас сделал ошибку, которую совершают все иранские президенты: он бросил вызов власти Верховного лидера страны Аятоллы Али Хaменеи. И он обречен на провал.

Вызов, сделанный Ахмадинежадом, является такой предсказуемой частью иранской политики, что его стали называть «президентским симптомом». Он появляется из уверенности президента в том, что, поскольку он является народно избранным лидером, то его не должен ограничивать контроль со стороны Верховного лидера. Однако история Исламской Республики наполнена неудавшимися попытками ее президентов консолидировать независимый центр власти. В конечном счете, божественная власть превосходит политическую власть.

Эта двойственная власть заложена в конституции Исламской Республики, и она неизбежно склоняется в сторону божественности, особенно во время второго президентского срока. Ахмадинежад не является исключением из этого правила. В действительности, поскольку он надавил сильнее, чем его предшественники, его звезда закатывается быстрее. Кроме того, спорные президентские выборы в июне 2009 года и политический кризис, который они вызвали, нанесли непоправимый урон демократической легитимности Ахмадинежада.

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