La dura realidad de las revoluciones árabes

BERLÍN – Dos años después del inicio de los levantamientos populares que convulsionaron Oriente Próximo, ya pocos hablan de una “Primavera Árabe”. En vista de la sangrienta guerra civil en Siria, el ascenso al poder de fuerzas islamistas en elecciones libres, crisis político‑económicas que se agudizan en Egipto y Túnez, la creciente inestabilidad en Irak, la incertidumbre respecto del futuro de Jordania y el Líbano y la amenaza de una guerra por el programa nuclear iraní, la luminosa esperanza de que surgiera un nuevo Oriente Próximo se ha apagado.

Si a esto le añadimos la situación en la periferia de la región, en el este (Afganistán) y el oeste (el norte de África, incluidos el Sahel y Sudán del Sur), el panorama se torna aún más sombrío. La verdad es que Libia está cada vez más inestable, Al Qaeda tiene presencia activa en el Sahel (de lo que son prueba los combates en Mali), y nadie puede predecir lo que sucederá en Afganistán después de que Estados Unidos y sus aliados de la OTAN se retiren en 2014.

Hay un error que todos cometemos una y otra vez: pensar al comienzo de una revolución que esta representa el triunfo de la libertad y la justicia sobre la dictadura y la crueldad. Pero la historia nos enseña que a menudo lo que viene a continuación no tiene nada de bueno.

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