A Situação Real das Revoluções Árabes

BERLIM – Dois anos após as revoltas populares terem começado a agitar o Médio Oriente, já são poucos os que falam de uma "Primavera Árabe". A esperança de um futuro brilhante para o Médio Oriente desapareceu, em consequência da guerra sangrenta na Síria, da ascensão ao poder das forças islâmicas através de eleições livres, do agravamento das crises políticas e económicas no Egipto e na Tunísia, de uma crescente instabilidade no Iraque, da incerteza sobre o futuro da Jordânia e do Líbano e das ameaças de guerra devido ao programa nuclear do Irão.

Se acrescentarmos as regiões periféricas a leste e a oeste – o Afeganistão e o Norte de África (incluindo o Sahel e o Sul do Sudão) – o panorama torna-se ainda mais negro. De facto, a situação da Líbia está cada vez mais instável, a Al-Qaeda está activa na região do Sahel (como se pode constatar pelos conflitos no Mali) e não é possível prever que acontecerá no Afeganistão após a retirada dos Estado Unidos e dos seus aliados da OTAN em 2014.

Todos temos tendência para cometer o mesmo erro várias vezes: no início de uma revolução pensamos que a verdade e a justiça triunfarão sobre a ditadura e a crueldade. Mas a história ensina-nos que, normalmente, o que se segue nada tem de positivo.

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