阿拉伯革命的现实考验

柏林—震撼中东的群众暴乱爆发两年后,如今已不再有人大谈“阿拉伯之春”了。叙利亚血腥内战、伊斯兰通过自由选举上台、埃及和突尼斯不断加深的政治和经济危机、伊拉克的日渐动荡、约旦和黎巴嫩未来的不确定性以及伊朗核计划头上的战争阴影,这些因素让新中东的美好前景消失殆尽。

若再考虑东西方边缘——阿富汗和北非(包括萨赫勒和南苏丹),前景就更加悲观了。事实上,伊比亚正在日渐动荡,基地组织在萨赫勒活动频繁(马里内战就是明证),没人可以预见阿富汗在2014年美国和北约盟军撤走后会发生什么。

我们所有人都反复犯着同样的错误:革命一开始,我们认为自由和公正会压倒独裁和残暴。但历史告诉我们,随之而来的往往不会有好结果。

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