阿拉伯革命的现实考验

柏林—震撼中东的群众暴乱爆发两年后,如今已不再有人大谈“阿拉伯之春”了。叙利亚血腥内战、伊斯兰通过自由选举上台、埃及和突尼斯不断加深的政治和经济危机、伊拉克的日渐动荡、约旦和黎巴嫩未来的不确定性以及伊朗核计划头上的战争阴影,这些因素让新中东的美好前景消失殆尽。

若再考虑东西方边缘——阿富汗和北非(包括萨赫勒和南苏丹),前景就更加悲观了。事实上,伊比亚正在日渐动荡,基地组织在萨赫勒活动频繁(马里内战就是明证),没人可以预见阿富汗在2014年美国和北约盟军撤走后会发生什么。

我们所有人都反复犯着同样的错误:革命一开始,我们认为自由和公正会压倒独裁和残暴。但历史告诉我们,随之而来的往往不会有好结果。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/BbatE9z/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.