Долг по-американски

После почти 15 лет беспрецедентного экономического роста – прерванного только коротким замедлением в 2000-2001 гг. – Соединенные Штаты накопили огромный запас внешнего долга, эквивалентного 25% от их ВВП. При дефиците текущего счета, в настоящее время превышающего 5% от ВВП, внешний долг Соединенных Штатов быстро растет. Но ни одна страна не может все время накапливать долг – а то, что не может продолжаться, рано или поздно должно закончиться.

В начале 1985 г., когда дефицит текущего счета Соединенных Штатов достиг $120 миллиардов, что составляет приблизительно одну треть от сегодняшнего уровня в ценах на данный момент, остальная часть мира прекратила финансировать его. Результатом было внезапное падение ценности доллара, который обесценился на 50% по отношению к немецкой марке. Европа не должна приветствовать продолжение этого.

Действительно, сам мир не может позволить себе исчезновение дефицита текущего счета Соединенных Штатов – по крайней мере, не так быстро. Уберите импорт Соединенных Штатов, и робкий экономический рост, который наблюдала Европа в прошлом году, сразу исчезнет.

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