Amerika als Spiegel

Was bringt das neue Jahr für die weltweite Konjunkturentwicklung? Wie wird sich die Produktion in den Entwicklungsländern entwickeln und wie im reichen industriellen Kern? Lässt sich eine solche Unterscheidung überhaupt noch aufrechterhalten? Schließlich sind die meisten reichen Länder in ein postindustrielles Zeitalter eingetreten, während in den Entwicklungsländern inzwischen ein ebenso großer Bevölkerungsanteil in der industriellen Fertigung beschäftigt ist wie in den reichen Ländern der Welt - oder es zumindest bald sein wird.

In den Vereinigten Staaten haben sich die Befürchtungen von vor neun Monaten, dass Amerika in eine Deflation abgleiten könnte, inzwischen zerstreut. Was bleibt, ist das Gefühl, dass eine enorme Chance vertan wurde.

Seit dem Amtsantritt von George W. Bush ist das amerikanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt real um durchschnittlich 2,3% gewachsen - ein Tempo, das unter der Präsidentschaft von George W. Bushs Vater oder unter Ronald Reagan als normal und zufrieden stellend gelobt worden wäre, das jedoch heute, nach dem Clinton-Boom, fragwürdig und lustlos wirkt. Es ist in der Tat unbestreitbar, dass die amerikanische Volkswirtschaft viel schneller hätte wachsen können, als dies der Fall war.

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