Margaret Scott

Афганский мираж развязки

СТОКГОЛЬМ. В ходе недавнего визита в Афганистан и Пакистан я не мог не заметить все более частые международные призывы к «развязке» в Афганистане. Но развязка для этой страны является опасной иллюзией: игра не закончится, как и история. Единственное, что может закончиться ‑ это внимание мирового сообщества и участие в делах Афганистана, что вполне может привести к катастрофическим последствиям.

Большая часть международного внимания сейчас направлена на 2014 год, целевую дату завершения постепенной передачи ответственности за безопасность от международных сил афганскому правительству. Этот процесс не обходится без проблем, но нет никаких оснований полагать, что он не может быть завершен более или менее в соответствии с планом и текущим графиком.

Я считаю, что есть и другая, гораздо более важная задача перед Афганистаном в 2014 году: выборы нового президента. В системе, где так много власти ‑ открытой и скрытой, конституционной и традиционной ‑ сосредоточено вокруг президента, выборы вполне могут превратиться в тотальную борьбу за будущее страны.

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