المعيار الجديد للنمو

كمبريدج ـ ساد الأسواق العالمية نوع من التفاؤل المفرط بعد ظهور ampquot;براعم خضراء جديدةampquot; على أغصان الاقتصاد العالمي الجافة. والآن يرى عدد متزايد من المستثمرين انتعاشة قوية مقبلة، في الصين أولاً، ثم في الولايات المتحدة، ثم في أوروبا وبقية العالم. ويبدو أن حتى مستويات النمو المروعة التي تم تسجيلها أثناء الربعين الماضيين لم تثبط هذا التفكير المتفائل. ويقول بعض المحللين: ampquot;كلما كانت السقطة أعنف كلما كان الارتداد أقوىampquot;.

ربما يكون هؤلاء المتفائلون على حق. ولكن ما مدى التوسع المعقول الذي قد يتوقعه المرء حين ينتهي أسوأ ما في الأمر أخيراً؟ هل يكون ampquot;المعيار الجديدampquot; هو نفس ampquot;المعيار القديمampquot; الذي كان سائداً أثناء سنوات الازدهار من 2002 إلى 2007؟

الحقيقة أنني أجد صعوبة في تصور الكيفية التي قد تتمكن بها الولايات المتحدة والصين، المحركان الرئيسيان للنمو العالمي طيلة عقدين من الزمان، من تجنب الاستقرار على متوسط نمو أدنى كثيراً مما كانت عليه الحال قبل الأزمة.

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