Poetin verdient onze steun in Syrië

NEW YORK – Er is uitgebreid gespeculeerd over wat de Russische president Poetin van plan is in Syrië, en waarom. Een groot deel van die analyse heeft zich echter vooral met de korte termijn beziggehouden en zou wel eens te negatief kunnen zijn over de langetermijngevolgen van zijn daden.

Wat we weten is dat Poetin heeft besloten het belaagde regime van Bashar al-Assad te hulp te schieten. Russische bommen en raketten regenen nu neer op een verzameling gewapende groepen die tegen de Syrische regeringskrachten vechten. Dit heeft het regime de adempauze gegeven die de Russische interventie moest bieden.

Hoe slecht de regering van Assad ook is, en hoe veel zij ook te verantwoorden heeft, deze uitkomst is op de korte termijn waarschijnlijk te verkiezen boven de ineenstorting van het regime. De pijnlijke waarheid over het hedendaagse Syrië is dat een implosie van de regering vermoedelijk zou leiden tot een genocide, nog veel meer ontheemden, en de vestiging van het zogenoemde kalifaat van de Islamitische Staat in Damascus.

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