在叙利亚考验普京

纽约—关于俄罗斯总统普京在叙利亚想干什么、为什么想这么干,已经有了太多的分析。尽管如此,许多分析狭隘地关注短期,也许对评估普京行为的可能的长期结果过于消极。

我们知道,普京决定出手助身陷重围的巴沙尔·阿萨德政权一臂之力。眼下,俄罗斯炸弹和导弹像雨点一样朝与叙利亚政府军对抗的武装集团打去,这给了巴沙尔政权喘息空间——也是俄罗斯干预的初衷。

巴沙尔政府是个坏政府,并且它应该受到惩罚,但从短期看,这一结果很可能比政权倒台更好。如今,叙利亚的痛苦事实是政府从内部崩溃很可能导致种族灭绝,增加几百万流离失所者,伊斯兰国也有可能在大马士革建立所谓的哈里发。

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