¿Crisis de innovación o crisis financiera?

CAMBRIDGE – Mientras los años de lento crecimiento se suceden, aumenta el debate sobre lo que cabe esperar para las próximas décadas. ¿Fue la crisis financiera un revés duro pero transitorio al crecimiento de los países avanzados, o expuso malestares de más largo plazo?

Recientemente unos pocos escritores, incluidos el emprendedor de Internet Peter Thiel y el activista político y ex campeón mundial de ajedrez Garry Kasparov, han adoptado una interpretación bastante radical del desaceleramiento. En un libro de próxima publicación sostienen que el colapso del crecimiento de los países avanzados no se debe meramente a la crisis financiera, la raíz del problema, proponen, es que las debilidades de estos países reflejan un estancamiento secular en la tecnología y la innovación. Por lo tanto, es poco probable que se verifique un aumento sostenido en el crecimiento de la productividad sin cambios radicales en las políticas de innovación.

El economista Robert Gordon lleva esta idea aún más lejos. Sostiene que el período de rápido progreso tecnológico posterior a la Revolución Industrial puede resultar una excepción de 250 años a la regla del estancamiento en la historia humana. De hecho, sugiere que las innovaciones tecnológicas actuales palidecen cuando se las compara con avances anteriores como la electricidad, el agua corriente, el motor de combustión interna y otros grandes inventos que ya tienen más de un siglo.

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