Man in demolished neighborhood in Syria Ammar/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

La clé d’un accord en Syrie

DAVOS – Les négociations pour la paix en Syrie, qui reprendront à Genève le 25 janvier, se dérouleront conformément à un cadre fixé à Vienne au mois d’octobre. Ces principes, convenus entre les plus importants acteurs étrangers du conflit syrien, incluent précisément la primauté d’une gouvernance laïque, la mise en déroute de l’État islamique (EI) et d’autres groupes terroristes, la conservation des frontières syriennes d’avant-guerre, la préservation de ses institutions étatiques, ainsi que la protection des minorités.

Ce cadre ne prévoit en revanche aucune démarche de résolution du plus grand obstacle à une paix durable, à savoir les agressions que subissent actuellement les civils, et autres atrocités de plus en plus créatrices de divisions entre les différentes forces syriennes, qui devront pourtant en fin de compte gouverner ensemble. Si ce carnage délibéré ne cesse pas rapidement, il est peu probable que la diplomatie à elle seule suffise à mettre un terme au conflit.

Si la guerre a duré si longtemps, c’est notamment parce que le gouvernement syrien et les groupes armés que ce gouvernement combat étaient de part et d’autre persuadés qu’ils l’emporteraient tôt ou tard. L’entrée en jeu de la Russie dans le conflit a contribué à modifier cette équation. Mais bien que la force de frappe aérienne russe ait suffisamment appuyé le gouvernement pour l’empêcher de s’effondrer, elle n’a pas permis de véritable avancée contre l’opposition.

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