Nager avec les requins au Mexique

MEXICO CITY – Selon le dicton, c’est lorsque la marée se retire que l’on découvre qui a nagé sans son maillot de bain. Peu de pays sont sortis des eaux de la crise économique mondiale aussi nus que le Mexique. Sanglé par une baisse de son PIB de 8%, la plus forte de tous les pays d’Amérique Latine, le Mexique a aussi chuté dans le classement mondial de l’index de compétitivité, est à la traine dans la plupart des indicateurs sociaux clés, est déclassé par les agences de notation et constate une dégringolade des revenus pétroliers compte tenu de la chute de la production.

Selon les derniers chiffres officiels, 50,1 millions de Mexicains – sur une population totale de 104 millions – vivent en dessous du seuil de pauvreté et 17,5 millions n’ont pas assez d’argent pour manger. Un pays qui a donc les moyens de produire un Carlos Slim, reconnu comme étant la deuxième richesse de la planète, en produit des millions d’autres qui tirent le diable par la queue avec 2 dollars par jour. Le Mexique s’est longtemps considéré le champion de l’Amérique Latine, mais le Chili, la Colombie, et l’étoile montante, géant de la région, le Brésil, sont désormais loin devant.

Depuis plus de vingt ans, le pétrole est la bouée de sauvetage de l’économie mexicaine. Il a masqué des déformations économiques qui ont permis aux gouvernements successifs de remettre à plus tard les réformes structurelles nécessaires puisque le pétrole finançait le statu quo. Le Mexique s’est laissé flotter ainsi, soutenu par la bouée que représentaient les milliards du pétrole, sans avoir à faire l’effort de nager plus fort ou plus vite que ces concurrents dans la mer des marchés émergeants.

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