Überleben in der großen Kapitalflut

Trotz der jüngsten Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten hat sich die grundlegende Dynamik der Weltwirtschaft nicht wesentlich verändert. Die große Frage ist nicht, wie mit einer Rezession umzugehen ist, sondern vielmehr, wie sich der derzeitige Boom und die mit ihm einhergehenden Kapitalflüsse bewältigen lassen. Angesichts der erwarteten Fortsetzung des weltweiten rasanten Wirtschaftswachstums gibt es hervorragende Investitionschancen, die nur dann finanzierbar sind, wenn weiter Kapital in Länder fließt, in denen es produktiv genutzt werden kann.

Die gute Nachricht ist: Einige Länder verfügen über umfangreiche Ersparnisse, die sie in anderen Ländern investieren wollen, und lassen sich von kurzfristigen Rotationen des Marktes nicht abschrecken. Tatsächlich zeigen unsere Prognosen, dass die Brutto- (oder Gesamt-) -kapitalflüsse in Schwellenländer, die unmittelbar vor der Asienkrise von 1997 400-500 Milliarden US-Dollar betrugen, in 2007 und 2008 auf 800-900 Milliarden US-Dollar ansteigen werden. In nicht allzu ferner Zukunft dürften diese Kapitalzuflüsse eine Billion US-Dollar übersteigen.

Im Nachhinein wissen wir, dass 1997-98 die unzureichende Regulierung des Bankensektors und Schwächen bei der Corporate Governance das Ausmaß des auf das „plötzliche Ende“ der Kapitalflüsse folgenden Abschwungs verschärften. Was aber bedeutet dies genau für die Weise, in der Länder niedrigen oder mittleren Einkommens während der aktuellen Flut ihre Kapitalverkehrspolitik gestalten sollten?

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