Ben Bernanke Larry Summers Wikimedia Commons

Das Problem mit der säkularen Stagnation

DELHI – In einer aktuellen Diskussion über die Plausibilität der säkularen Stagnation zwischen Ben Bernanke, dem ehemaligen Vorsitzenden der US-Federal Reserve, und Larry Summers, dem ehemaligen US-Finanzminister, stimmten beide über die Notwendigkeit einer globalen Perspektive überein. Aus dieser Perspektive allerdings widerspricht die Hypothese einer säkularen Stagnation in der Zeit vor der weltweiten Finanzkrise von 2008 einer entscheidenden Tatsache: Das weltweite Wachstum betrug damals durchschnittlich über 4% – der höchste jemals gemessene Wert.

Dasselbe Problem trifft auf Bernankes Hypothese zu, langsames Wachstum spiegele eine „weltweite Ersparnisschwemme“ wider. Aus einer keynesianischen Perspektive kann der Aktivitätsschub der frühen 2000er Jahre nicht durch eine Steigerung der Ersparnisse erklärt werden.

Die Unterstützer der Hypothese der säkularen Stagnation kümmern sich anscheinend um das falsche Problem. Aus einer wirklich säkularen und globalen Perspektive betrachtet liegt die Schwierigkeit in dem Versuch, den Boom vor der Krise zu erklären. Präziser ausgedrückt liegt sie in der Erklärung des Zusammentreffens dreier großer globaler Entwicklungen: einer Zunahme des Wachstums (und nicht der Stagnation), einem Abschwächen der Inflation und einem Rückgang der realen (inflationsbereinigten) Zinssätze. Jede überzeugende Erklärung dieser drei Entwicklungen sollte sich nicht so sehr im Rahmen der reinen Gesamtnachfrage bewegen, sondern den Aufstieg der Schwellenländer, insbesondere Chinas, stärker in den Blickpunkt rücken.

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