Não Apostem num Dólar Forte

NOVA IORQUE – Os especialistas da economia, quase sem excepção, prevêem um dólar mais forte para 2015 – uma expectativa que está a levar os investidores a apostar muito forte. Mas essa estratégia de mercado poderá revelar-se um erro enorme.

O consenso reflecte o facto de que os Estados Unidos são, actualmente, a única economia importante onde as perspectivas de crescimento estão a melhorar. Mais recentemente, o Departamento de Comércio dos EUA reviu em alta a sua estimativa do crescimento do PIB no terceiro trimestre do último ano, para 5% – a taxa mais elevada em 11 anos.

Além disso, a revisão foi principalmente baseada no consumo privado e no investimento empresarial – as componentes mais estáveis e persistentes do PIB. O sentimento dos consumidores está no seu nível mais alto desde 2007. Os baixos preços do petróleo, que reduzem o custo da gasolina nas bombas, fornecem um impulso adicional, dando às famílias dos EUA mais dinheiro para gastar nos centros comerciais. A taxa de desemprego é de 5,6% e tem diminuído.

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