停止探究,开始思考

2006年10月6日将会被载入史册。北朝鲜可能在那一天引爆了一枚核弹。核试爆失败了吗?可能未来可以提供答案,但是,政治后果却是明显而实质性的。

首先,美国、中国、俄罗斯以及日本所主导的国际压力并不足以防止朝鲜采取这一攸关大局的步骤。一个可怕的独裁政体、一个没有前途的政权以及大国政治中的侏儒违背了国际巨人们的意志。现在愤怒是可以理解的,到处都听得见制裁的要求。

但是,这一政权的目标是通过自我孤立而生存,对于毫不留情地牺牲其人民毫无恐惧。对于这样一个政权而言,制裁的效果会是什么呢?而且,朝鲜政权竭力求得生存,拥有核武器和导弹,最大规模的人道主义灾难在其人民中爆发。中国果真会允许对其邻国实施制裁吗?制裁又有多少可信度和有效性可言呢?

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