Las acciones y el largo plazo

Berkeley – Después de la segunda baja del 40% en el índice compuesto de Standard & Poor´s de acciones comunes en una década, los inversionistas globales están en pánico. Los fondos invertidos, y reinvertidos, en el índice compuesto de S&P de 1998 a 2008 han rendido una rentabilidad real de cero.: los dividendos ganados sobre la cartera han sido apenas suficientes para compensar la inflación. Hay que remontarse hasta 1982 para ver una década al final de la cual los inversionistas habrían hecho mejor poniendo su dinero en bonos corporativos o del Tesoro de Estados Unidos en lugar de hacerlo en una cartera diversificada de acciones.

Así es que los inversionistas se están preguntando: ¿serán las décadas futuras como la que acaba de pasar? Si es así, ¿no habría que alejarse de las inversiones en valores?

La respuesta es, casi con toda seguridad, no. A una o dos décadas, el rendimiento pasado de las acciones y los bonos no es una garantía fiable ni una buena guía para los resultados futuros. Periodos como 1998-2008, en que las acciones tuvieron un rendimiento relativamente malo, están precedidos por periodos -como 1978 a1988 y 1988 a1998- en que les fue relativamente bien, y con toda probabilidad sobrevendrán periodos similares.

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