Aktien, langfristig gesehen

Berkeley: Nach dem zweiten Rückgang des amerikanischen Standard & Poor’s Composite Index um 40% in nur einem Jahrzehnt sind die Anleger weltweit mit den Nerven am Ende. Zwischen 1998 und 2008 in den S&P Composite investierte und reinvestierte Gelder haben eine effektive Rendite von 0 abgeworfen: Die auf das Portfolio ausgeschütteten Dividenden waren gerade mal hoch genug, um die Inflation auszugleichen. Erstmals seit 1982 hätten die Anleger nach einem Jahrzehnt besser dagestanden, wenn sie ihr Geld statt in ein diversifiziertes Aktienportfolio in Unternehmensanleihen oder US-Schatzanleihen gesteckt hätten.

Die Anleger fragen sich also: Werden zukünftige Jahrzehnte ebenso ausfallen wie das letzte? Und wenn ja, sollte man dann Anlagen in Aktien nicht besser vermeiden?

Die Antwort lautet fast mit Sicherheit Nein. Bei einem Zeithorizont von einem oder zwei Jahrzehnten ist die Wertentwicklung von Aktien und Anleihen in der Vergangenheit weder eine zuverlässige Garantie noch eine gute Richtgröße für zukünftige Ergebnisse. Zeiträumen wie 1998-2008, in denen sich Aktien relativ schlecht entwickeln, gingen Phasen wie 1978-1988 und 1988-1998 vorweg, in denen sie sich relativ gut entwickeln, und ähnliche Phasen dürften aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach folgen.

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