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来自股市的经济信息

坎布里奇—最近的股市回调——美国两年来第一次回调——引起很多评论大谈投资者应该如何做、机器交易扮演了什么决策,以及实体经济会受到什么影响。但这些内容只有一些是有用的。

许多投资顾问强调需要长期着眼,不要价格一跌就恐慌。这是对的:2月初的下跌绝非卖出的好理由。股票从长期角度来看价格过高才是卖出的好理由。

事实上,相较基本面,股价仍然非常高企。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)在回调发生前几周时指出,在过去一个世纪中,美国经周期调整的市盈率只有两次高于现在:1929年股市崩盘前的高峰期和2000—2002年。言下之意是未来15年的股票回报率可能会大大低于过去15年。

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