Economías sin sustentación

NEW HAVEN – En la economía global post-crisis, las recaídas son la norma. Estados Unidos, Japón y Europa volvieron a arrojar malas cifras de crecimiento en la primera mitad de 2014, y no debe ser coincidencia. En todo el mundo desarrollado, una desaceleración persistente dejó a las principales economías inusualmente vulnerables a inevitables perturbaciones.

Claro que hay excusas, como siempre las hay. Una contracción de la economía estadounidense en el primer trimestre del año se desestimó atribuyéndola a razones climáticas. La caída de Japón en el segundo trimestre se atribuyó a un aumento del impuesto a las ventas. El estancamiento europeo en el segundo trimestre se explicó como una aberración debida a la confluencia de efectos climáticos con las sanciones a Rusia.

Pero por más tentador que sea atribuirla a factores idiosincráticos, la reciente desaceleración en los países desarrollados no se puede obviar tan fácilmente. Tras graves recesiones que las privaron de fortaleza cíclica, hoy a las economías se les hace especialmente difícil superar el impacto de las perturbaciones y escapar de trayectorias de crecimiento anémico.

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