Unterwegs mit Abreißgeschwindigkeit

NEW HAVEN – In der Weltwirtschaft nach der Krise sind Rückschläge die Regel. In den USA, Japan und Europa ist das BIP-Wachstum in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2014 erneut ins Stocken geraten. Dies ist durchaus kein Zufall. Das anhaltend schleppende Wachstum überall in der entwickelten Welt macht die wichtigen Volkswirtschaften ungewöhnlich anfällig für die unweigerlichen Schlaglöcher auf dem Weg voran.

Natürlich gibt es Ausreden dafür – die gibt es immer. Der Abschwung in den USA im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres wurde als wetterbedingt abgetan. Japans Wirtschaftseinbruch im zweiten Quartal wurde mit der Anhebung der Verkaufssteuer begründet. Das stagnierende Wachstum in Europa wurde als Anomalie wegerklärt, die das Zusammentreffen von Wettereinflüssen und gegen Russland verhängten Sanktionen widerspiegele.

So verführerisch es sein mag, diese Entwicklungen auf Sondereinflüsse zurückzuführen: Der jüngste Abschwung in den entwickelten Ländern lässt sich so leicht nicht abtun. Aufgrund ihrer fehlenden zyklischen Dynamik im Gefolge schwerer Rezessionen tun sich viele Volkswirtschaften heute besonders schwer, Erschütterungen wegzustecken und aus ihrer blutleeren Wachstumsentwicklung auszubrechen.

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