中国政策的不协调状态

发自纽黑文——中国在2013年的最后几个月里发表了多项政策声明。从11月初在十八届三中全会上提出60点改革方案,到一个月后在中央经济工作会议上提出的六个核心任务,中国领导人提出了一系列新措施来解决国家未来几年所面临的严峻挑战。

但从整体来看,政策不连贯的风险却越发明显。例如三中全会的各项提案都有一个战略重点——推进中国经济期待已久的消费结构调整。而中央经济工作会议的核心任务上体现了这些改革精神的同时,也提出其战术重点:“维持稳步增长。”考虑战略与战术之间可能出现的取舍问题——也就是长期改革和短期增长之间的权衡——中国决策者能真正实现他们的所有目标吗?

当然,这种取舍在大多数经济体中长期存在——发达国家和发展中国家都一样。而中国与它们的不同之处,在于该国一直极端倾向于把重点放在规划其经济发展道路的战略目标上。

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