美国的虚假曙光

纽黑文—金融市场和所谓的达沃斯共识达成了广泛的一致,类似于经典的周期性复苏的东西终于要在美国出现了。真是这样吗?

乍一看,如此乐观有理有据。实际GDP增长在2013年下半年平均接近4%,比此前四年2.2%的速度接近翻番。失业率终于下降到了7%的阈值以下。美联储也确定了这一看起来令人振奋的情景——它开始收缩长期资产买入规模了。

但我的建议是庆祝胜利为时尚早。两个季度的GDP增长走强并不意味着复苏萎靡的状况得到了突破。自2009年中期大衰退结束以来,相同的情况发生过两次——2010年第二季度和第三季度的年化增长率平均为3.4%;2011年四季度和2012年一季度平均增长了4.3%。结果,这两次的乐观形势最终都只是昙花一现。

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