China and US US State Dept/Flickr

中国编织美国的思维陷阱

纽黑文—外推法的诱惑难以抵挡。趋势会对市场、决策者、家庭和企业施加强大的影像。但目光敏锐的观察者明白线性思维的局限性,因为他们知道,线会弯曲,有时甚至会断开。在今天评估决定全球经济的两大因素——与美国政策和中国经济状况有关的风险——就是如此。

量化宽松,即QE(美联储购买长期资产的月度计划),是以高尚的姿态开始的——正逢其时,并且被巧妙地描述为美联储为了根治严重危机而采取的猛药。反驳总能找到破绽,但你很难否认2008年末到2009年初的流动性注入对于将世界救出远比大衰退更严重的局面起到了重要作用。

定向资金便利与首轮量化宽松导致2009年3月美联储资产负债表规模飙升至2.3万亿美元,而在2008年夏危机爆发前夕只有9,000亿美元。因危机而深度冻结的市场开始解冻。

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