Estancados y paralizados

MILÁN – Las recientes dramáticas caídas en los mercados de acciones de todo el mundo son una respuesta a la interacción de dos factores: los fundamentos económicos y las respuestas de política –o, mejor dicho, la falta de respuestas de política.

Veamos primero los fundamentos. Las tasas de crecimiento económico en los Estados Unidos y Europa son bajas –están incluso muy por debajo de las expectativas recientes. El lento crecimiento ha golpeado duro a las valuaciones de acciones y ambas economías corren el riesgo de una importante contracción.

Una desaceleración en una producirá una desaceleración en la otra –y en las mayores economías emergentes que, hasta ahora, habían logrado mantener un rápido crecimiento ante las aletargadas economías avanzadas. La capacidad de recuperación de los países emergentes no será posible ante las recaídas en Estados Unidos y Europa: no pueden contrarrestar por sí mismos las abruptas disminuciones de la demanda de los países avanzados, sin importar lo saludable de la situación financiera en sus sectores públicos.

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