Stagnante e paralizzata

MILANO – I drammatici crolli recentemente registrati nei mercati azionari di tutto il mondo sono una risposta all’interazione di due fattori: i fondamentali economici e la mancanza di risposte politiche.

In primo luogo, i fondamentali. I tassi di crescita economica negli Stati Uniti e in Europa sono bassi e ben al di sotto delle recenti previsioni. La crescita lenta ha colpito duramente le stime, ed entrambe le economie rischiano una grave contrazione.

Un rallentamento in una delle due aree è destinato a produrre un rallentamento nell’altra, e nelle principali economie emergenti che fino a questo momento sono riuscite a sostenere elevati tassi di crescita a dispetto delle lente performance registrate nelle economie avanzate. La capacità di recupero dei paesi emergenti non si estenderà alla recessione double-dip dell’America e dell’Europa: non sono in grado di controbilanciare da soli il drastico crollo di domanda dei paesi avanzati, nonostante i solidi bilanci del settore pubblico.

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