Stagnation und Paralyse

MAILAND: Die jüngsten dramatischen Kursstürze an den weltweiten Aktienmärkten sind eine Reaktion auf das Zusammenspiel zweier Faktoren: den wirtschaftlichen Rahmendaten und den politischen Reaktionen – oder vielmehr, dem Mangel an politischen Reaktionen.

Zunächst einmal zu den Rahmendaten. Die Wachstumsraten in den USA und Europa sind niedrig und liegen sogar noch deutlich unter den jüngsten Erwartungen. Das niedrige Wachstum hat die Aktienbewertungen hart getroffen, und beiden Volkswirtschaften droht ein erheblicher Konjunkturabschwung.

Eine Verlangsamung in einer von beiden wird zwangsläufig eine Verlangsamung in der anderen hervorrufen – und auch in den wichtigen Schwellenvolkswirtschaften, die bisher angesichts der lustlosen Entwicklung in den hoch entwickelten Volkswirtschaften ein hohes Wachstum aufrechterhalten konnten. W-förmigen Rezessionen in Amerika und Europa werden die Schwellenländer nicht widerstehen können: Steile Rückgänge bei der Nachfrage aus den hoch entwickelten Ländern können sie, ungeachtet der gesunden Bilanzen ihrer öffentlichen Sektoren, allein nicht ausgleichen.

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