Stagnation et Paralysie

MILAN – Les déclins spectaculaires observés récemment sur les marchés boursiers du monde entier sont le résultat de l’interaction de deux facteurs : les fondamentaux économiques et les réponses politiques – ou plutôt le manque de réponses politiques.

Commençons par les fondamentaux. Les taux de croissance économique des États-Unis et de l’Europe sont faibles – et bien en dessous des prévisions, même récentes. La lenteur de la croissance a durement frappé la valorisation des actions, et les économies des deux pays risquent une récession majeure.

Un ralentissement de la croissance dans l’un entraîne nécessairement un ralentissement de la croissance dans l’autre – de même que dans les plus importantes économies émergentes, qui jusqu’à maintenant parvenaient à maintenir une forte croissance, par opposition aux performances médiocres des économies les plus avancées. La résistance des pays émergents ne sera pas suffisante face aux récessions cumulées de l’Amérique et de l’Europe : ils ne peuvent compenser à eux seuls les chutes vertigineuses de la demande des pays développés, malgré la santé financière de leur secteur public.

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