战时南亚

坎布里奇——上个月在孟买发生的恐怖袭击所针对的不仅仅是印度的安全和经济。它更广义的目标是要粉碎2004年以后缓和的印巴关系。袭击者并没有蒙住头面,也没有用自杀夹克把自己炸得粉身碎骨。匿名并不是他们的目的。他们希望自己捍卫的事业为公众所知。除非这项事业得到充分的理解,而且所有的来龙去脉在地区内尽人皆知,否则今后的事态发展可能证明这次袭击只是南亚分裂过程的开始。

涉及南亚所有国家和越来越多非国家组织的地区冲突产生了大批训练有素的战士,只要一声召唤,他们就会义无反顾地为事业献身。无论在印度还是巴基斯坦,经济地位的不平等和社会的不公平现象都为冲突提供了肥沃的土壤。对宗教热情的利用和滥用,包括“圣战运动”或“印度原教旨主义”,都威胁到了南亚地区社会和谐的根基。

当前混乱局面的根源可以追溯到阿富汗,那里曾经发生的悲剧影响永远也不可能被限制在指定的边境范围之内。20世纪80年代当阿富汗自由战士通过西方和穆斯林世界都乐于参与的犯罪组织演化为“穆斯林游击队员”的时候,也就改写了南亚地区的发展史。总是对印度感到惴惴不安的巴基斯坦成为这次转变的核心区域。西方本以为局势在苏联帝国解体之后已经取得了进展,但南亚地区——还有全球社会——都在继续为这个并不神圣的计划付出沉重的代价。

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