Fünf Gründe für langsames Wachstum

MAILAND – Seit der weltweiten Finanzkrise von 2008 hat sich ein bemerkenswertes Muster entwickelt: Regierungen, Zentralbanken und internationale Finanzinstitutionen mussten ihre Wachstumsprognosen immer wieder nach unten korrigieren. Mit nur ganz wenigen Ausnahmen traf dies sowohl für weltweite Vorhersagen als auch für solche einzelner Staaten zu.

Dieses Muster hat echten Schaden angerichtet, da überoptimistische Prognosen die Maßnahmen zur Wachstumsbeschleunigung verzögern und damit die vollständige wirtschaftliche Erholung bremsen. Die Prognostiker müssen sich über die Gründe ihrer Fehlschläge klar werden. Glücklicherweise rücken bei zunehmenden Abstand zur Krise einige der Fehler klarer ins Bewusstsein. Ich selbst habe fünf davon gefunden:

Der erste war, dass die Möglichkeiten fiskaler Interventionen – zumindest in den Industrieländern – nicht ausgeschöpft wurden. Wie der ehemalige stellvertretende Finanzminister der Vereinigten Staaten, Frank Newman, in seinem jüngsten Buch Freedom from National Debt schreibt, können die Möglichkeiten eines Landes zur fiskalen Intervention besser durch seine Gesamtbilanz bestimmt werden, als anhand der traditionellen Methode des Vergleichs seiner Schulden (einer Verbindlichkeit) mit seinem BIP (eines Kapitalflusses).

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