Economics

O novo amanhecer no Japão

Jan 23, 2014 Abe Shinzō

DAVOS – Durante anos, os analistas apelidaram o Japão de a terra do sol poente. Eles diziam que para uma economia tão ponderada como a do Japão, o crescimento seria impossível. Eles diziam que a nossa dívida pública era insustentável. Eles apontaram o nosso suposto espírito de demissão como sendo um sintoma de declínio relativo.

Mas agora essas vozes são raramente ouvidas. A economia do Japão tem oscilado do crescimento negativo para o positivo e está à beira de se libertar da deflação crónica. Nesta Primavera, os salários irão aumentar - um desenvolvimento atrasado que levará a um maior consumo. A nossa posição fiscal também melhorou de modo firme, com o meu governo no caminho certo para consolidar as finanças públicas.

E, como a economia melhorou, as pessoas no Japão tornaram-se mais vibrantes e alegres - um estado de espírito reflectido no entusiasmo do povo sobre a escolha de Tóquio para receber os Jogos Olímpicos e Paraolímpicos de 2020.

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j. von Hettlingen Jan 27, 2014

I quite enjoy the first half of what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe writes: "Japan's New Dawn". Yet the second half reveals much of his obsession with China. Without naming names, it's obvious that he is attacking China. He warns against military spending in Asia, at the cost of growth and stability and urges the countries in the region to work together, in order to "prevent unchecked military expansion in Asia".
To start with Abe hints that Japan would soon again be the land of the rising sun and he would be the one to breathe hope into the "land of the setting sun". He speaks about the "third arrow" of his "Abenomics", which aims to target the labour market, by making it more friendly for women and foreigners to join the work force. Nor does self-adulation do harm to the country's image as a generous foreign aid donor in Cambodia or the Philippines etc. Japan is an important key-player among the ASEAN countries and the TTP will no doubt boost the region's economy.
Then in the second half Abe reminds the readers of the current territorial dispute in Asia. He appeals for the "freedom of movement for people and goods" and emphasises the importance of securing the "sea-lanes, air space etc.", by "upholding the rule of law and promoting fundamental values like freedom, human rights ad democracy".
In the end Abe assures the countries in Asia that Japan "will never again wage war", and it aims to contribute peace. His "fervent hope" is "Japan’s economic revival", from which the region and the world would benefit. All the best, Mr. Prime Minister.
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Fetewei Tewoldemedhin Jan 24, 2014

Dear Prime minister Abe,

Good luck and Godspeed sir!! But a couple of things on the way... Please make sure the TTP is in the best interest of your nation... this transnational treaties have now bore fruit a great mischief in that corporations which have lost profits because nations making laws in the best interest of their people are being sued to pay for those 'lost' profits.. i have never heard 'business sans risk'.. but this has become the new age that a corporations will never lack profits ... and as for the female participation... it has been indeed long overdue that the female workforce in japan isn't on par with the first world and the better the nation includes the women in the work force.. the better it is for your nation!!
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Scott Wolfel Jan 23, 2014

While we have witnessed the initial "shock and awe" of Abenomics, I can't help but being reminded of George Bush's infamous "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq speech on May 1, 2003.

While the initial offensive has apparently broken Japan out of over 2 decades of stagnation - at least temporarily - the internal and external structural barriers to every one of the items on the Prime Minister's confidently asserted to do list remain daunting. The internal and external vested interests that the Prime Minister's drill bit will have to go through will not yield without tremendous struggle and pushback as he's confronting centuries, and even millenia, of domestic and geopolitical history and culture. It is likely that there will be many setbacks and even failures in the years and decades to come, but the key will be continuing to move the ball forward and trying new strategies and tactics in the face of setbacks and failure.

In 1932, with regards to confronting the Depression in America and his paralysis, Franklin Roosevelt said, "“Once I spent two years in bed trying to move my big toe. After that everything else seems easy.” The first phase of Abenomics - the shock and awe - was the monetary equivalent of FDR breaking the gold peg in 1933, which represented the nadir of the Depression, but there was a long road, and many setbacks including a World War, ahead before the Depression ended and prosperity returned.

As he descends from the rarified and thin air of Davos, Prime Minister Abe, and other world leaders, will need to show the strength, determination, confidence and persistence of FDR in the coming years in order to put Japan and the world back on the road to long-term prosperity and avoiding disastrous geopolitical conflicts over scarce and disputed resources.

It will likely be a decade or more before the longer term outcomes of the Prime Minister's policies become clear.
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