安倍经济学的祝福

东京—日本首相安倍晋三的经济复苏计划极大地激发了国内信心。但“安倍经济学”可信度几何?

有趣的是,仔细考察日本过去数十年的经验,你会觉得没有什么理由持续看空。事实上,从工作人口人均产出增长看,日本从上世纪末以来表现相当出色。在劳动力人数下降的情况下,2012年(即安倍经济学之前)的日本标准估计是工作人口人均产出年增长率3.03%。这比美国稳健得多——美国去年人工作人口人均产出只增加了0.37%;也比德国坚挺得多——德国的数字是下降0.25%。

尽管如此,许多日本人正确地觉得,安倍经济学只是有助于日本的复苏。安倍晋三在做很多经济学家(包括我)一直建议美国和欧洲所做的事:包括货币、财政和结构政策在内的全面的计划。安倍晋三用三支箭的故事来为这一计划打比方:一支箭易折,三支箭不可折。

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