El triunfo de Sharon

El derrame cerebral incapacitante del Primer Ministro israelí, Ariel Sharon, ha vuelto a dejar la política isrealí inmersa en la confusión o eso parece. Sharon estaba considerado el vencedor seguro en las elecciones previstas para marzo, para las cuales había organizado su propio partido Kadima ("Adelante") y se había atraído a figuras del Partido Laborista, por la izquierda, y del partido Likud, por la derecha, pero, ¿de verdad será su salida de la vida pública tan desestabilizadora como indican muchos observadores?

Desde luego, lo que hizo tan popular a Kadima fue el atractivo personal de Sharon. Sus credenciales conservadoras y nacionalistas sostuvieron su popularidad en la derecha, mientras que su nueva estrategia de seguridad –incluida la retirada completa de la Franja de Gaza– atrajeron a partidarios procedentes de la izquierda. En una palabra, Sharon era el candidato ideal de centro: un dirigente que conciliaba una actitud de paloma con un punto de vista de halcón.

Y, sin embargo, la intempestiva salida de Sharon en modo alguno ha invertido los fundamentales cambios políticos y estratégicos que él inició. A corto plazo, si bien Kadima obtendrá menos votos sin Sharon al timón, algunos votantes se verán influidos por la simpatía por el dirigente afectado. De hecho, las encuestas muestran que su partido aún podría acabar en primera posición.

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