沙龙的胜利

以色列总理沙龙导致瘫痪的中风再次将以色列政治带入风暴之中。或者看起来是这样的。沙龙被认为是在预定三月份举行的大选的确定的得胜者。他为此次大选组建了自己的前进党。该党从左翼工党以及右翼利库德集团吸纳重要人物。但是,他离开政治生活果真就会象许多观察家所说的那样导致不稳定吗?

的确,沙龙的个人魅力使得前进党广受欢迎。他的保守主义和民族主义历练维持了其在右翼的欢迎程度。而其新的安全战略,包括从加沙地带全部撤军,又从左翼吸引了支持者。简而言之,沙龙是理想的中间派候选人,他是一个调和了鸽派手段和鹰派观念的领导人。

但是,沙龙不合时宜的退局决未逆转他所引发的根本性的政治和战略转移。从短期来看,尽管没有沙龙的领导,前进党得到的选票会减少,但是某些选民将会因同情病难中的领导人而受到影响。实际上,民意调查表明该党仍将会获得最多的选票。

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