Полурациональное изобилие

В 1996 году экономист Йельского университета Роберт Шиллер огляделся по сторонам, копнул вглубь истории и сделал вывод о том, что возможности американского фондового рынка переоценены. Раньше, если отношение цены акции к доходу было высоким, долгосрочные доходы от акций непременно оказывались низкими. Теперь же цены согласно индексу акций «S&P 500» оказались в среднем в 29 раз выше доходов в прошлом десятилетии.

С помощью проводимых совместно с коллегой из Гарвардского университета Джоном Кэмпбеллом исследований на основе эконометрического регрессивного анализа, Шиллер предсказал в 1996 году, что «S&P 500» в следующем десятилетии будет плохим вложением капитала. Он утверждал, что в течение десяти лет (до января 2006 года) реальная стоимость «S&P 500» снизится. Даже принимая во внимание дивиденды, он оценил возможные доходы по инвестициям с учетом инфляции, которые могут получить держатели акций «S&P 500», как равные нулю. Это гораздо ниже того, что мы привыкли считать типичным годовым реальным доходом американского фондового рынка, а именно: около 6%.

Доводы Шиллера звучали убедительно. Они подвигли Алана Гринспена выступить со своей знаменитой речью об “иррациональном изобилии”, произнесённой им в Американском институте предпринимательства в декабре 1996 года. Эти доводы убедили и меня.

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