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再论长期停滞

华威—诺贝尔奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和美国前财长拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)之间的公开论战因为揭示了这两位在经济理论上其实意见一致的经济学家之间的个人恩怨。斯蒂格利茨不太含蓄地批评萨默斯没有在奥巴马总统任期内担任国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)时坚持更大规模的财政赤字。萨默斯回应说,更大的财政刺激在政治上不可行。但是,尽管他们都认为大衰退原本有可能通过大规模财政刺激克服,两人都没有拿出经济模型来支撑自己的结果。

萨默斯复兴了埃尔文·汉森(Alvin Hansen)的工作,后者在20世纪30年代引入了长期停滞的概念。但我并没有看到萨默斯拿出阐述完整的动态一般均衡模型来支持他的意见。在他关于这一话题的论述中,他在长期停滞的概念间无缝切换,一是因投资低迷导致持续的更低利率,二是总需求不足导致持续的更低就业

这两件事是不同的。在反驳斯蒂格利茨的过程中,萨默斯更倾向于后一种定义。用他的话说,“放任自流的话,私人经济不可能在急剧收缩后回归充分就业。”

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