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Comment financer la relance mondiale

HONG KONG – Il y a une prise de conscience croissante que, dans le monde globalisé d'aujourd'hui, les marchés financiers dépassent le contrôle des décideurs nationaux. Seules quelques économies ont l'échelle suffisante pour façonner les marchés mondiaux interconnectés, mais font face à de sérieuses contraintes politiques et économiques. Par conséquent, l'économie mondiale est aujourd’hui coincée dans un cycle financier pro-cyclique, avec peu d'options de sortie.

Comme Claudio Borio l’avait fait remarquer il y a de nombreuses années, le cycle financier mondial est à la fois plus long et plus prononcé que les cycles économiques réels, et est étroitement associé à la valeur fluctuante de la monnaie de réserve dominante, le dollar américain. Lorsque le dollar est faible, les capitaux se déplacent des États-Unis vers les autres pays, où elle stimule la croissance grâce à l'augmentation du crédit.

Malheureusement pour ces pays, généralement dans le monde émergent, les entrées génèrent également de l'inflation, des bulles d'actifs et l'appréciation des devises. Le résultat est une augmentation du risque financier et géopolitique, ce qui rend le dollar américain plus attrayant pour les investisseurs. Lorsque les capitaux retournent vers les Etats-Unis, le dollar se renforce, pendant que les économies émergentes restent avec les conséquences de l'éclatement des bulles d'actifs et de la dévaluation de leur monnaie.

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