Salvando al pecador griego

MUNICH – La actual debilidad del euro tiene un culpable: Grecia. El último déficit de cuenta corriente de Grecia, que representó el 14% del PBI, fue el mayor entre los países de la zona del euro después de Chipre. Su relación deuda-PBI era de 113% a fines de 2009. En vista de que la proyección del déficit para este año es que supere el 12% de un PBI que se contrae, la relación deuda-PBI aumentará por sobre el 125% para fines de 2010, el nivel más alto en la zona del euro.

La reacción de los inversores ha sido intentar abandonar el euro y, sobre todo, mantenerse alejados de la deuda del gobierno griego. Grecia tuvo que ofrecerles tasas de interés cada vez más altas para retenerlos. En enero, la prima de interés era de 2,73 puntos porcentuales en relación a la deuda pública alemana. Si esta prima prevalece, Grecia tendrá que pagar 7.400 millones de euros más en intereses por año sobre su deuda de 271.000 millones de euros que tendría que pagar a la tasa alemana.

El problema no es sólo la prima en sí misma, sino el riesgo inminente de que Grecia no pueda encontrar los 53.000 millones de euros que necesita para pagar su deuda con vencimiento en 2010, mucho menos los estimados 30.000 millones de euros adicionales para financiar la nueva deuda resultante de su déficit presupuestario proyectado.

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